Research from Coinbase suggests that decisions on a spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) could surprise investors

Coinbase Research Suggests Ethereum ETF Approval Could Surprise Investors

In a recent note, Coinbase Institutional has indicated that the approval of a spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) may come sooner than expected, potentially surprising investors. The research suggests that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to approach the decision with a similar rationale to that used for approving Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs earlier this year.

According to Coinbase, the SEC’s approval of BTC ETFs was based on the strong correlation between the price of spot BTC on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a correlation that also exists for Ethereum. The research notes that the correlation between CME futures products and spot exchange rates for Ethereum is high enough for the CME’s surveillance to detect any misconduct in the spot market.

While the odds of an Ethereum ETF approval in May are currently low, Coinbase believes that there is potential for an unexpected positive outcome from the SEC. The research suggests that the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%, higher than the current market expectations.

Coinbase also points out that as cryptocurrency becomes a more prominent election issue, the SEC may be less inclined to deny an Ethereum ETF approval, as it would require significant political capital. Even if the initial deadline for approval is not met, Coinbase believes that litigation could potentially reverse the decision.

Overall, Coinbase’s research indicates that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF is not a matter of if, but when. Investors may be in for a surprise as the SEC considers the potential benefits of allowing an Ethereum ETF to enter the market.

As the crypto industry continues to evolve, the approval of an Ethereum ETF could have significant implications for the market. Investors are advised to stay informed and monitor developments closely to capitalize on potential opportunities that may arise.